PCFormat Forum Archive

rustypup wrote: ↑09 Apr 2020, 12:12

Prime wrote: ↑09 Apr 2020, 10:51The (****, I refuse to dignify him with any adjective implying he's human) #### is a narcissistic sociopath.

Now tell us how you really feel

I'd get arrested

So two more weeks. Not totally unexpected.

Oh, not at all. I expect the rate of identification of new cases to rise as testing is ramped up. It looked to me as if the graph on the PowerBI site was still going up rather than reaching a plateau.

Middle-Earth situation update: we're originally scheduled to exit Level 4 on April 23rd. The final decision will be made on April 20th.

I'm expecting some of the country will be dropped to Level 3, and others remaining on Level 4 (particularly Southland, where there's a large cluster linked to a single wedding reception).

The number of cases reported daily is dropping, even as testing is being ramped up, which is encouraging. Yesterday, we had 29 reported new cases, which is the lowest number since the Level 4 lockdown began. The Government has decided that they don't want to merely control COVID-19 -- they want to outright eliminate it.

Ron2K wrote: ↑09 Apr 2020, 22:48 Middle-Earth situation update: we're originally scheduled to exit Level 4 on April 23rd. The final decision will be made on April 20th.

I'm expecting some of the country will be dropped to Level 3, and others remaining on Level 4 (particularly Southland, where there's a large cluster linked to a single wedding reception).

The number of cases reported daily is dropping, even as testing is being ramped up, which is encouraging. Yesterday, we had 29 reported new cases, which is the lowest number since the Level 4 lockdown began. The Government has decided that they don't want to merely control COVID-19 -- they want to outright eliminate it.

Well this is the right attitude. Getting it out of circulation prevents reinfection. And then the population gets on as normal and your border restrictions keep it out.

Prime wrote: ↑09 Apr 2020, 23:47 Well this is the right attitude. Getting it out of circulation prevents reinfection. And then the population gets on as normal and your border restrictions keep it out.

This. It is so important.

This was probably inevitable: parallels are now being drawn to the World of Warcraft Corrupted Blood incident.

Food for thought...

https://mg.co.za/article/2020-04-08-loc ... or-africa/

ryanrich wrote: ↑10 Apr 2020, 23:26 Food for thought...

https://mg.co.za/article/2020-04-08-loc ... or-africa/

I read some of that and feel like he misses the mark. But it will take time to draft a proper reply.

Prime wrote: ↑11 Apr 2020, 05:06

ryanrich wrote: ↑10 Apr 2020, 23:26 Food for thought...

https://mg.co.za/article/2020-04-08-loc ... or-africa/

I read some of that and feel like he misses the mark. But it will take time to draft a proper reply.

I dont think he misses the mark, but he does drift into whataboutism when he compares COVID-19 to malaria.
It's something to think about for places in Africa where Malaria is an issue, but not for the rest of the world - or even Africa at large.
His basic premise is that its better to lose a few old people and keep the the economy going than it is to cripple the economy to save them and ultimately disenfranchise a generation.
Which is a valid argument for a professor of philosophy to make.

This makes about as much logical sense as vaccines causing autism

HIV is correlated with reduced risk of serious Covid-19

There is limited data on this because we're still in early days, but his argument makes no sense. Africa has largely escaped MERS and SARS but given the number of HIV and Aids people with TB in sub-Saharan Africa, this is just short sighted.

In South Africa, the average male dies before the age of 60, and 3% of the population is over 65.The median age in Africa is 18. In Europe, it’s 42. Africa is the world’s youngest continent, by far.

He's conflating average and median. We need to look at the median age of the population. We also need to ask what they're dying from and whether they'd be more likely do die from COVID-19 and have a consequentially shorter life span (see previous paragraph)

And there are less immediate consequences. Economic downturn means more people below the poverty line. After the 2008 financial crisis, five million more children were hungry than otherwise would have been.

Losing the sole breadwinner in your house, or your grand parents who look after you isn't better

Do not be tempted to retort that Covid-19 will kill more people in total. By far the most dangerous disease in human history is malaria, preventable with mosquito nets. Almost nobody dies from childbirth in developed countries, and few children die of pneumonia. But in developing countries, according to Unicef, five million children die each year from pneumonia, malaria and childbirth complications.

Malaria is a killer in parts of Africa. However, it's endemic to Africa and the people it most affects already have compromised immune systems. Also, any one who doesn't understand that there are two different types of Malaria is worth ignoring any form of medical opinion from. Further, Malaria is very much locked to altitude. You will find far fewer few cases of Malaria in the highveld since the vector is far less prevalent at those altitudes. Pretoria is no longer a malaria area, Joburg doesn't have Malaria.

Is there an alternative to lockdown? Yes: lock down areas where this makes sense, and which have the older portion of the population, but don’t lock down where it’s impossible to do so. Regional quarantine may be more effective in Africa, where conurbations are separated by large distances. The benefits of separating at-risk populations also deserve fuller consideration.

In Africa, and other developing regions, older people in urban areas often move back to rural areas. In rural villages, it may be possible to separate older and younger people more easily than in a crowded township or slum, where lockdown is a nonsense.

South Africa won't be able to do any tourism (or business) if we have a raging COVID 19 infection. You'll effectively be restricted from international travel for the next year. And with the current death toll estimates, 2.4 Million people could die from Covid 19 alone. Not being able to access the global market will be far greater in the long run. The US is ****ed in this regard. The long term implications for them are that everyone is going to close their borders to them until that epidemic is under control.

Rural South Africa does not have the same risk profile because of the natural separation of people and the relative isolation from the city.

Skeptics with a K: Discussing Covid-19

Alice does a good job explaining why Didier Raoult's study on hydrochloroquine is so deeply flawed.

Prime wrote: ↑14 Apr 2020, 15:23 Mapping the infection in SA

Thanks

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/c ... story.html

It's emerging data so take it with a hint of judgement.

There is something similar to the article Prime linked to here.

Our relatively mild lockdown seems to have worked quite well on the whole “flattening the curve” front.

ryanrich wrote: ↑23 Apr 2020, 04:02 Our relatively mild lockdown seems to have worked quite well on the whole “flattening the curve” front.

1C5E8568-107F-4AF5-AEDF-F50F006C6090.jpeg

Excellent news that.

ryanrich wrote: ↑23 Apr 2020, 04:02 Our relatively mild lockdown seems to have worked quite well on the whole “flattening the curve” front.

1C5E8568-107F-4AF5-AEDF-F50F006C6090.jpeg

Did they remove active cases from that data?

Prime wrote: ↑23 Apr 2020, 13:32

ryanrich wrote: ↑23 Apr 2020, 04:02 Our relatively mild lockdown seems to have worked quite well on the whole “flattening the curve” front.

1C5E8568-107F-4AF5-AEDF-F50F006C6090.jpeg

Did they remove active cases from that data?

They’re daily confirmed new cases. Here in South Australia we had only 2 new cases the last 7 days and total of 50 odd active cases. Schools are opening next Tuesday as normal, thank goodness. Still the option of online learning as well for people who choose.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52407177

Tribble wrote: ↑24 Apr 2020, 13:25 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52407177

"It'll be a beautiful thing and we'll be all clean."

He just keeps on delivering the goods.

rustypup wrote: ↑24 Apr 2020, 21:48

Tribble wrote: ↑24 Apr 2020, 13:25 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52407177

"It'll be a beautiful thing and we'll be all clean."

He just keeps on delivering the goods.

Dunno about you - but I will take care of my own cleanliness thank you

Well he's just going to end up bumping his own followers off.