This makes about as much logical sense as vaccines causing autism
HIV is correlated with reduced risk of serious Covid-19
There is limited data on this because we're still in early days, but his argument makes no sense. Africa has largely escaped MERS and SARS but given the number of HIV and Aids people with TB in sub-Saharan Africa, this is just short sighted.
In South Africa, the average male dies before the age of 60, and 3% of the population is over 65.The median age in Africa is 18. In Europe, it’s 42. Africa is the world’s youngest continent, by far.
He's conflating average and median. We need to look at the median age of the population. We also need to ask what they're dying from and whether they'd be more likely do die from COVID-19 and have a consequentially shorter life span (see previous paragraph)
And there are less immediate consequences. Economic downturn means more people below the poverty line. After the 2008 financial crisis, five million more children were hungry than otherwise would have been.
Losing the sole breadwinner in your house, or your grand parents who look after you isn't better
Do not be tempted to retort that Covid-19 will kill more people in total. By far the most dangerous disease in human history is malaria, preventable with mosquito nets. Almost nobody dies from childbirth in developed countries, and few children die of pneumonia. But in developing countries, according to Unicef, five million children die each year from pneumonia, malaria and childbirth complications.
Malaria is a killer in parts of Africa. However, it's endemic to Africa and the people it most affects already have compromised immune systems. Also, any one who doesn't understand that there are two different types of Malaria is worth ignoring any form of medical opinion from. Further, Malaria is very much locked to altitude. You will find far fewer few cases of Malaria in the highveld since the vector is far less prevalent at those altitudes. Pretoria is no longer a malaria area, Joburg doesn't have Malaria.
Is there an alternative to lockdown? Yes: lock down areas where this makes sense, and which have the older portion of the population, but don’t lock down where it’s impossible to do so. Regional quarantine may be more effective in Africa, where conurbations are separated by large distances. The benefits of separating at-risk populations also deserve fuller consideration.
In Africa, and other developing regions, older people in urban areas often move back to rural areas. In rural villages, it may be possible to separate older and younger people more easily than in a crowded township or slum, where lockdown is a nonsense.
South Africa won't be able to do any tourism (or business) if we have a raging COVID 19 infection. You'll effectively be restricted from international travel for the next year. And with the current death toll estimates, 2.4 Million people could die from Covid 19 alone. Not being able to access the global market will be far greater in the long run. The US is ****ed in this regard. The long term implications for them are that everyone is going to close their borders to them until that epidemic is under control.
Rural South Africa does not have the same risk profile because of the natural separation of people and the relative isolation from the city.