SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19)

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rustypup
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SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19)

Post by rustypup »

(Because it was going to happen anyway).

Some preparatory reading for those actually interested in numbers and graphs

First off, please feel free to smack anyone who uses the phrase "the coronavrius". The coronavirus family is large, with only a select few presenting an issue for us panicky mammals. COVID-19 may be a champion in the infection vector stakes but is absolute pants in the mortality game vs original flavour SARS, (which provided us a very firm 15% chance at kicking the bucket vs wherever COVID-19 will land once the cruddy data dust settles - anywhere between 0.1% and 2% which is a ludicrous variance).

The risk cohorts for this sod are pretty damn normal. Old age, impaired immunity, etc. In fact, if you're a healthy, non-smoker/asthmatic below the age of 65 there is a strong liklihood you will contract the virus, infect your loved ones and recover without ever being aware you had it. How do we know this. Because we know the coronavirus family pretty damned well and this is SOP for them. (A family that includes a few members that we fondly refer to as "the common cold", btw.) Unsurprisingly, those few crazy countries which set out to test EVERYONE are discovering that the protein markers specific to COVID-19 infections are present in a substantially higher number of people than the reported stats, (more the socialists than anyone else... and for some reason South Korea - maybe to keep K-Pop alive?). Again, not surprising because the current reported stats are based almost entirely on people who have managed to present symptoms. Ie, someone in one of the aforementioned risk cohorts and therefore substantially more likely to both get sick and, possibly, perish.

To painfully restate that, the reported infection numbers are grossly understated and projections based on them are unsubstantiated BS.

(I should note that like most diseases, there will be outliers and yes, kids will succumb and some really old folks will laugh it off. This is normal where stats are concerned. More so for anything involving nature)

Another point of interest is that isolation is a delaying tactic. Much like cancer, infleunza and heart disease, (the other global epidemics we simply ignore due to poor marketing), this sod is out there. We can expected repeated waves of infection to follow.

At present, the data available are patchy and very much skewed toward the dramatic. In other words, not something we should be basing any major decisions on.

...Yet that is precisely what we, as a species, have done.

We have elected to burn down our financial systems and their highly inter-dependent support structures in a stunning display of media frenzy and ignorance I would not have imagined possible.

To clarify, we have elected to kill even more people in a wasted effort to contain something than cannot be contained. Something which carries a potential death rate far below heart disease or traffic accidents. What the hell is it with humanity and its priorities?

Anyone who imagines the current impairment of the markets will not cost significantly more lives than the virus is either not thinking about this or deluded.

To make matters even less salubrious...at 7.5billion hairless apes facing the disastrous consequences of global warming - driven primarily by our desire to breed ourselves to death - why on Earth would we choose to kill the most productive of our number in order to secure a slight life extension for the least? (If this upsets you, read up on the Utiliterianism.)

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Re: SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19)

Post by Prime »

We're delaying it because our healthcare systems can't cope.

Yes, we may burn our economy to the ground now, but the fallout from the failed healthcare systems and body count will be worse if we don't.

How you even begin to process that many bodies in such a short space of time is another problem.

The Covid-19 pandemic is a result of governments globally failing to provide adequate health care (how the US can only have 2500 ICU beds is beyond ridiculous) and failing to respond timeously to the threat. It's also largely come about because we haven't had an epidemic on this scale in decades. COVID 19 happens to have hit all the right combinations in Plague Inc.

The shut downs are a band-aid. They're triage while we build up equipment stock piles and develop a vaccine.

Also, you're assessment that healthy adults won't feel much is ******. I have a friend who got it because some ****** coughed all over the EMTs. He's spent two weeks feeling bloody awful in bed.

The death rate depends on whether you calculate it from day 0 or from present day minus 14. If you do that, it's between 0.5% to 20%

(Now I need to find the source for this)
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Re: SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19)

Post by wizardofid »

Rusty you are forgetting we have about 5-6 million people with Aids/Hiv and TB in this country. If it gets to them it will be a bloodbath, morality rates would be higher then Italy. Once it gets to informal settlements, early indication is, it is there already, pretty much an episode from walking dead.

It is more about gradual increased infection rates, then exponential explosion with complete utter chaos, and final collapse of the health system
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Re: SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19)

Post by Ron2K »

It seems like there are three possible actions that countries are taking:
  1. Full national lockdown: shutdown freedom of movement within the country and close national (and even state) borders. Chosen by New Zealand, China, Hong Kong Taiwan, and now South Africa too.
  2. Partial lockdown relying on social distancing and mass testing, isolation and contact tracing to prevent the rapid spread of COVID-19: the Singapore and South Korea model.
  3. Let the virus rip and sacrifice the old and medically compromised. I guess that's the ultimate in "taking one for the team". The United States is the obvious example here.
It's not a choice that I envy making: what price do you pay in terms of both economic and physical health?

Those following the full lockdown model are taking a very humanitarian view where every life is precious and although it's important to keep the economy functioning as best we can, the economy is not going take precedence over "flattening the curve" and saving as many lives as we can. That will almost certainly come at great economic cost. The US, meanwhile, has gone the route of throwing people under the viral bus to (largely) keep Wall Street happy. It may keep the the economy moving, but it will totally crash the healthcare system: we've seen this with Italy, and it now seems to be repeating itself in the US (particularly New York).

And the reason this thing can overwhelm healthcare systems: the science is suggesting that between 40% to 80% of the global population will eventually catch this. If everyone all gets this at the same time, then around 18% will need hospitalization, around 4% will need to be in intensive care units, and around 2% (depending on which stats you read and how you calculate the death rate) will kick the bucket. (Disclaimer: with the modelling around this changing as quickly as it is, my numbers may well be off.)

Only time will prove which action above is the correct one. None of us alive today (apart from a minuscule section of the population still alive that survived the 1918 Spanish Flu) has experienced something like this; there isn't a clear-cut answer until either this runs its course or we develop a vaccine.

The only thing that I can say with any confidence right now is: the post COVID-19 world will be very different to the world we previously lived in.
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Re: SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19)

Post by Tribble »

I don't see how we can escape getting this - we are just slowing down the contagion for some of us. Those who cannot self isolate are the problem. As we know - many are medically compromised already. Our biggest problem is not the people who are going to die, it is the high number of orphans we are going to have when this is all over. Aids has already made many parentless - being looked after by grandparents. These grandparents are likely to die now. What is to become of these children. In a broken economy, where people are fighting to keep their jobs and just get by, who is going to look after and feed these kids? This is going to be our main problem - the biggest drain on society. Emotional as well as financial. I am sure I read a scifi book with a similar theme....

/goes to find out
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Re: SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19)

Post by wizardofid »

soylent green, or perhaps back to the future :p
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Re: SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19)

Post by Tribble »

wizardofid wrote: 29 Mar 2020, 22:51 soylent green, or perhaps back to the future :p
More to do with gangs of kids. Could actually have been a game or movie too.
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Re: SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19)

Post by Ron2K »

Tribble wrote: 29 Mar 2020, 23:27 More to do with gangs of kids. Could actually have been a game or movie too.
Lord of the Flies? ;)
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Re: SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19)

Post by Tribble »

Ron2K wrote: 29 Mar 2020, 23:37
Tribble wrote: 29 Mar 2020, 23:27 More to do with gangs of kids. Could actually have been a game or movie too.
Lord of the Flies? ;)
That definitely has a gang of kids. Nope, this was a post-apocalyptic world. Not important :mrgreen:

Gee, Grammarly really doesn't like my sentence construction today.
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Re: SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19)

Post by Prime »

So this is where I am curious (and I'd love to hear from an expert).

What effect do ARVs have on this thing? And how many South Africans are on them?

What happens when you throw TB into to mix. (Which is endemic to some informal settlements)
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Re: SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19)

Post by wizardofid »

Prime wrote: 30 Mar 2020, 01:38 So this is where I am curious (and I'd love to hear from an expert).

What effect do ARVs have on this thing? And how many South Africans are on them?

What happens when you throw TB into to mix. (Which is endemic to some informal settlements)
If you already have reduced lung functionality, it won't end well for you, same applies to immune compromised folks. Imagine getting bronchitis and then add pneumonia to top it off...
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Re: SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19)

Post by Prime »

Yeah, but TB is bacterial.

So if the ARVs are holding back the HIV/Aids and you don't have TB, will the ARVs also suppress Covid-19?

I agree with you in that I suspect that if you already have TB, it's a death sentence.

It also means all the mine workers with bad lungs will also be at high risk. Scary stuff.
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Re: SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19)

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Prime wrote: 29 Mar 2020, 17:40 we may burn our economy to the ground now, but the fallout from the failed healthcare systems and body count will be worse if we don't.
Our healthcare system is going to degrade regardless. The majority portion of healthcare consumers rely on public funds. Given that we've effectively just butchered the wallet, the idea that public funds are inexhaustible is about to be put to the test.
Prime wrote: 29 Mar 2020, 17:40How you even begin to process that many bodies in such a short space of time is another problem.
Catapults? The answer is almost always catapults.
Prime wrote: 29 Mar 2020, 17:40The shut downs are a band-aid. They're triage while we build up equipment stock piles and develop a vaccine.
Refer again to the funding issue. Which cannot be sneezed at. We're already at 30% unemployment with majority of households on the brink. Flushing the few remaining jobs cannot possibly be thought of as rational. The outcomes from this are almost all bad. As in life-consuming bad. Future destroying bad. An all encompassing economic downturn to protect <2% of the population*, (for most countries - ZA/Africa are probably farked in that regard).
Prime wrote: 29 Mar 2020, 17:40you're assessment that healthy adults won't feel much is ****. I have a friend who got it because some ****** coughed all over the EMTs. He's spent two weeks feeling bloody awful in bed.
Firstly, not my assessment. Data collated and reported. Secondly, it is entirely possible for healthy adults to contract the virus if their immune system is subjected to a high-enough viral payload. Some will remain asymptomatic, others will not. The factors driving who the unlucky few will be are murky and random - because human physiology is murky and random.

It should be noted that healthcare workers, teachers, etc are at far greater risk of contracting the virus because they spend their days around walking petri dishes loaded with infectious whatnots. Which is why it amuses me when the media make a point of dramatising how those taking care of COVID-19 patients have terrifyingly contracted COVID-19 themselves. As if this were noteworthy or relevant.

/*For the record, I am very much in the riskier cohort. Ex-smoker, asthmatic with a proven propensity to develop viral pneumonia like it's a super power
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Re: SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19)

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wizardofid wrote: 29 Mar 2020, 20:25 Rusty you are forgetting we have about 5-6 million people with Aids/Hiv and TB in this country. If it gets to them it will be a bloodbath
Not at all. Every country has its specific factors which will alter the impact severity. Weirdly, anyone on ARVs is likely to shrug COVID-19 off as some of the treatments showing promise include ARVs.

Here's the thing, though. These people will still have HIV/TB after the destruction of the economy. Only now, they will have even less access to much needed healthcare because - unsurprisingly - smaller economy means less taxable income and more demand on the remaining resources.
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Re: SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19)

Post by Prime »

The thing is, the sooner SA shrugs this off (and it's possible if the numbers stay low in the poorer provinces although they're about 10 times higher than published), the sooner you region the global economy. And you're in a position to fill the gap that other parts of the world need.

The US is ****ed, they're going to be at this for months to contain it. Britain is likely to be the same. And SA needs to learn not to depend on tourism for income. You don't want plague rats visiting right now.

This is the perfect excuse to launch a make work program afterwards. Particularly if you can export the product.
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Re: SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19)

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Ron2K wrote: 29 Mar 2020, 20:36 the science is suggesting that between 40% to 80% of the global population will eventually catch this. If everyone all gets this at the same time, then around 18% will need hospitalization, around 4% will need to be in intensive care units, and around 2%
Given that this family of viruses is so effective at using us to propagate itself, I'm leaning toward 80%... ongoing for a while. Only now the funding of support structures has been decimated - which is not a great outcome.
Ron2K wrote: 29 Mar 2020, 20:36 develop a vaccine.
We've been hunting a vaccine for the common cold for some time now. Chances of stumbling on a general purpose vaccine capable of effective treatment against something that mutates this quickly is... small.
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Re: SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19)

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Prime wrote: 30 Mar 2020, 07:15 So if the ARVs are holding back the HIV/Aids and you don't have TB, will the ARVs also suppress Covid-19?
There are hints that ARVs may work but only 2 studies and both involved really small cohorts. So... maaaaaaybe....
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Re: SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19)

Post by KALSTER »

I'm looking at the stats and the recovered vs death rate is at 18% ATM and getting worse..anything to read into there?
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Re: SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19)

Post by Prime »

Probably the large increase in cases over the last week and the rising death toll in Italy and Spain.

https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoi ... IsImMiOjh9

Fantastic set of visual data
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Re: SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19)

Post by wizardofid »

Prime wrote: 30 Mar 2020, 07:15 Yeah, but TB is bacterial.

So if the ARVs are holding back the HIV/Aids and you don't have TB, will the ARVs also suppress Covid-19?

I agree with you in that I suspect that if you already have TB, it's a death sentence.

It also means all the mine workers with bad lungs will also be at high risk. Scary stuff.
Actually quite a few HIV/AIDS people have TB. It isn't about the type of infection, if you lungs are messed up you are in serious trouble with corona virus, short of ventilation there is still a high risk of death.Patients you have died generally only after the second week.

Speaking of mines, we have quite a few middle age/elderly population with mesothelioma, and other asbestos related diseases.

Comparatively we have a significantly higher and larger risk population then most countries.With the frenzy and panic buying last week and social grants this week, it will not end well at all.I suspect we MIGHT see people dropping like flies in two weeks.People are uneducated with regards to the virus and some simply not following social distancing.
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Re: SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19)

Post by wizardofid »

rustypup wrote: 30 Mar 2020, 08:39
Ron2K wrote: 29 Mar 2020, 20:36 the science is suggesting that between 40% to 80% of the global population will eventually catch this. If everyone all gets this at the same time, then around 18% will need hospitalization, around 4% will need to be in intensive care units, and around 2%
Given that this family of viruses is so effective at using us to propagate itself, I'm leaning toward 80%... ongoing for a while. Only now the funding of support structures has been decimated - which is not a great outcome.
Ron2K wrote: 29 Mar 2020, 20:36 develop a vaccine.
We've been hunting a vaccine for the common cold for some time now. Chances of stumbling on a general purpose vaccine capable of effective treatment against something that mutates this quickly is... small.
Actually there are as much as 8 strains now, however, the mutations is quite limited, so even if the get a vaccine it should work for all 8.
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Re: SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19)

Post by ryanrich »

COVID-19 plus Junk Status has hit South Africa at just about the worst time, Rand is taking a hammering. :shock:
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Re: SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19)

Post by wizardofid »

ryanrich wrote: 30 Mar 2020, 11:09 COVID-19 plus Junk Status has hit South Africa at literally the worst time, Rand is taking a hammering. :shock:
It is pretty stable. It has improve 20 odd cents already, from the R18.00+ it was this morning.Even if it increases, as long as it remains stable, we should be fine.
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Re: SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19)

Post by Tribble »

@RustyPup - piranha my dear man - piranha.

@Ryanrich yes and it sux - badly!!! Way to kick a country when it is down and other countries cannot even afford to invest. Ah wait - we will be owned by China soon....

@Prime - the more tests they run - the higher our numbers are going to climb. We know our labs are slower than most - mainly due to inferior or lack of equipment. I do not think it is a staffing issue. But should that lab techs get ill - our rate is going to drop while the death rate soars.
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Re: SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19)

Post by Tribble »

wizardofid wrote: 30 Mar 2020, 11:12
ryanrich wrote: 30 Mar 2020, 11:09 COVID-19 plus Junk Status has hit South Africa at literally the worst time, Rand is taking a hammering. :shock:
It is pretty stable. It has improve 20 odd cents already, from the R18.00+ it was this morning.Even if it increases, as long as it remains stable, we should be fine.
We could hope that the Dollar declines - that sometimes helps. And with Easter looming - this is a possibility. :twisted:

:shock:
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